Associate Dean at University of Baltimore speaks with Stella Escobedo
Dr. Ivan “Sascha” Sheehan, a professor and associate dean at the University of Baltimore, appeared on OAN to discuss the fast-moving developments in Iran and the growing prospects for regime change. In a serious and wide-ranging interview with host Tracy Sabol, Sheehan detailed the confluence of domestic unrest, international pressure, and credible opposition that is pushing the Iranian regime toward collapse. From Israel’s military activity to increased resistance inside Iran, Sheehan argued the stage is being set for a genuine people-led transition of power.
Sabol opened by highlighting recent escalations in the region—Israel’s targeted strikes, Iran’s missile posturing, and the broader instability spreading across the Middle East. Sheehan noted that the regime in Tehran is feeling the pressure on multiple fronts. From within, it faces economic collapse, growing dissent even among the IRGC ranks, and a population that has repeatedly risen in defiance of clerical rule. From outside, the regime is increasingly isolated, with even China advising its citizens to leave Iran—a sign that Beijing, one of Tehran’s few remaining allies, sees the writing on the wall.
Asked what separates this moment from previous failed uprisings, Sheehan pointed to the existence of a well-organized, secular, democratic resistance movement: the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). He emphasized that for the first time in decades, there is not just a vacuum of power, but a ready-made alternative—complete with a ten-point plan, leadership inside and outside Iran, and a functioning underground network that could immediately assume transitional authority. Sheehan called the NCRI the only opposition force with both the moral authority and logistical infrastructure to govern if the regime falls.
When Sabol pressed Sheehan on the role of outside powers, including the U.S. and Israel, he warned that while military and economic pressure have their place, regime change cannot be imposed from the outside. Foreign strikes can degrade the regime’s ability to suppress dissent, but real transformation must come from within. Sheehan made clear that the Iranian people—not Western governments—must be the face and force of political change. He cautioned that military intervention without domestic legitimacy could backfire, solidifying support for hardliners and alienating the broader public.
Throughout the interview, Sheehan repeatedly returned to the idea that the regime is no longer in control of the narrative. The mullahs’ grip on power is weakening by the day, and the coordinated efforts of the Iranian resistance are capitalizing on that vulnerability. He cited recent protests, acts of sabotage, and intelligence leaks as evidence that organized dissent is increasing in both scale and sophistication. The question now, Sheehan argued, is whether the international community—particularly the U.S.—has the political will to support the Iranian people in their pursuit of liberty.
Sabol asked whether the NCRI could actually govern, or whether a power vacuum would emerge. Sheehan replied that while any transition comes with risks, the NCRI’s planning, track record, and public commitments to democratic principles, secularism, and gender equality offer a real foundation for stability. He reminded viewers that no revolution is clean—but it can be purposeful and structured when an organized force is ready to fill the void.
As the interview closed, Sheehan issued a clear challenge to U.S. policymakers: stop pretending that Iran’s regime can be reformed or contained. The time for cautious engagement is over. Instead, he urged American leaders to vocally and materially support Iran’s democratic opposition, tighten sanctions against the regime’s economic engines, and make clear that the world stands with the Iranian people—not with the ayatollahs.
The interview ended with the sober but hopeful message that Iran is not merely a geopolitical threat—it is a nation of 85 million people, many of whom are ready to build a free and democratic future. That future, Sheehan concluded, is closer than it’s ever been.
