Well, Black Friday is upon us once again. But with all the shipping bottlenecks and labor shortages, just what is the retail forecast for this busiest month of shopping? Helping us answer this question and more is Phillip Patrick of Birch Gold Group.
Q&A:
- What is your general forecast for retail sales on Black Friday and beyond?
Answer: People will buy gifts as always. But there will be two key differences. One, there will be shortages of some items, meaning many of us will be getting second and third choices on items. Two, prices will be higher. So, when the experts crunch the numbers, sales totals will look positive, considering we’re still in the middle of the Covid mess. But the total volume of actual products purchased may be static or down. So, the stats will represent a false feeling of security when artificially kept high from inflation.
- Tell us more about the impact inflation will have on this heavy buying season?
Answer: With inflation hiking prices on virtually everything, and fewer government subsidies, the average buyer will get considerably less bang for their buying buck this season. The result can be one of three things. People will buy less expensive gifts, or people will cut some people off the gift list, or people will dive deeper into debt to maintain the same level of purchases they made last year but this risks triggering a downward financial spiral.
- Please tell us what you mean by this.
Answer: Each year, millions of people overspend this time of year and barely squeak by paying their credit card bills when they come due. But if people get spread even thinner but trying to be all things to all people, regardless of higher prices, when the bills come due and can’t be paid on time, there are late penalty fees, along with credit scores dropping. This leads to higher interest on loans due to the credit drop. It’s a vicious cycle. Inflation can be an unforgiving taskmaster.
- Let’s talk more about inflation.
Answer: We’re seeing widely varying inflation numbers, with the government exempting specific large categories like gas and food, claiming they are too volatile to include in their formulations. Is that a fair way of measuring our pain?
- If you don’t eat or drive, that’s fair…
- If we measure by the Fed’s formula from the 90s, we’re seeing closer to 10% inflation.
- With bills like Build Back Better, how much longer do you think inflation can be contained to a steady drip before the damn breaks, and what might that look like?
- Inflation isn’t contained today, and that’s already bad enough.
- By the time the Weimar republic’s economy entered technical hyperinflation, the reichsmark had already lost 97% of its value.
- With the costs of virtually everything increasing, is there any safe haven left to preserve our wealth?
- It’s a challenging environment to navigate — I think it’s a case of understanding where our issues lie and what’s an effective tool to hedge the numerous risks we face today.
- Commodities generally have intrinsic value, though many tend to volatility. Many experts believe precious metals such as gold or silver are underpriced, offering a potential opportunity.
- Where may we get more information on economic matters such as inflation and your economic forecasts?
- At Birch Gold Group, our mission is to empower Americans to take control of their financial futures. We have many resources at BirchGold.com
Phillip Patrick is a Precious Metals Specialist and a spokesman for Birch Gold Group. He was born in London and read for his politics and international relations degree at the prestigious University of Redding. He spent years as a wealth manager at Citigroup in London’s Wall Street before taking his current position with Birch Gold Group in 2012.
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