Poll-uting Politics: Antidote to Poll-induced Pessimism is Political Participation, not Surrender
With the November 3 midterm elections just days away, polls showing Democrats with a commanding advantage could be doing more than measuring voter sentiment. They could be shaping the outcome by discouraging Republican donors, undermining conservative enthusiasm and convincing Trump voters that their ballots won’t make a difference. Craig DeRoche, president and CEO of Family Policy Alliance and former Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives, warns that Republicans cannot afford to take the bait.
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- “Suppression polls” may be designed to discourage Republican turnout and donations
- 23 million Trump voters skipped the 2022 midterms, creating a massive turnout opportunity
- 2020 and 2024 polls repeatedly underestimated Republican support
- Battleground Senate races could determine control of Congress
- Republicans risk making discouraging polls a self-fulfilling prophecy by staying home
With roughly 23 million Americans who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 sitting out the 2022 midterms, the difference between victory and defeat may come down to whether conservatives show up—or surrender before Election Day. DeRoche argues that Republicans must look beyond discouraging headlines and recognize that the election’s outcome will be determined by the voters who actually cast ballots, not the predictions dominating the news.
Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin recently described certain surveys as “suppression polls,” arguing that they understate GOP support and create a false impression that Democratic victories are inevitable. The concern isn’t without historical precedent. A major review of 2020 election found the largest national error in four decades, with surveys consistently understating Republican support. Similar misses occurred in 2024, including in battleground states where Republican candidates ultimately outperformed their final averages.
This year’s cycle has raised additional questions about quality, including concerns about artificial intelligence-generated surveys, questionable samples that may overrepresent politically energized Democrats. Recent primary contests in Michigan and Wisconsin also demonstrated how dramatically numbers can diverge from actual results.
But the stakes extend beyond polling accuracy. If Republicans believe the political landscape is hopeless, they may stay home, turning an apparent polling advantage for Democrats into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Meanwhile, competitive Senate contests in Michigan, Maine, Minnesota and Texas could determine which party controls Congress.
DeRoche can explain how polling narratives influence voter behavior, why conservatives must look beyond discouraging headlines and what Republicans need to do to mobilize their supporters before November 3. He can also discuss why this election should be framed around the policy choices facing Americans—including affordability and the economic consequences of the previous administration—rather than simply becoming a referendum on Trump.
The bottom line: Polls don’t cast ballots. Voters do. And if Republicans allow surveys to convince them the outcome is already decided, they could hand Democrats the very victories those polls predict.
DeRoche offers a timely perspective on voter mobilization, the battle for congressional control and the danger of confusing a poll’s snapshot with an election’s final verdict.
Relevant Article(s):
Let Parents Parent – Family Policy Alliance
OPTIONAL Q&A:
- How can “suppression polls” discourage Republican voters from turning out, and could they become a self-fulfilling prophecy on Election Day?
- With roughly 23 million Trump voters from 2024 sitting out the 2022 midterms, what will it take to get them to the polls this November?
- Why have polls repeatedly underestimated Republican support in recent elections, and have pollsters corrected the methodological problems?
- Are mainstream media outlets inadvertently—or deliberately—creating a narrative that Democratic victories are inevitable before voters cast their ballots?
- How much could voter turnout, rather than persuasion, determine whether Republicans retain control of the House and Senate?
- With Senate races in Michigan, Maine, Minnesota and Texas potentially deciding control of Congress, which factors could produce unexpected Republican victories?
- How should Republicans counter Democratic messaging on affordability and the economy without allowing the midterms to become a referendum on President Trump?
- What can conservative voters do right now to ensure that discouraging polls don’t keep them from exercising their most important political power?
ABOUT CRAIG DEROCHE…
Craig DeRoche is President and CEO of the Family Policy Alliance (FPA), the central hub of the pro-family movement. He previously served as Speaker of the House in Michigan and president of Justice Fellowship, founded by Watergate figure, Chuck Colson. He is a frequent speaker and author on faith, culture, public policy, and civic engagement and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Fox News, and Christianity Today. Craig is also a devoted husband and father and the author of Highly Functional and Outrageous Justice.
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