Breaking Bad Deals: MEF Report Argues Israel must Break Palestinian Will to Win with ‘Cognitive Defeat,’ not Bargain for Elusive Peace
What if everything Washington has been told about achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians has been fundamentally wrong? A sweeping new report from the Middle East Forum (MEF) blows open that explosive question, and Gregg Roman, Alex Selsky, and Jonathan Spyer are available to dissect its findings, challenge conventional wisdom, and explain why the implications could upend the entire debate over Israel’s future.
The report’s author, Meir Ben-Shabbat, headed Israel’s National Security Council from 2017 to 2021, spent three decades in the Shin Bet—including senior counterterrorism and Gaza-related security roles—and played a key role in negotiating the Abraham Accords.
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- Comprehensive MEF report challenges decades of conventional Middle East peace strategies
- Meir Ben-Shabbat brings decades of Israeli national security and counterterrorism experience
- Explosive MEF analysis examines why Israel’s enemies believe victory remains possible
- October 7 exposes catastrophic failures in understanding adversaries’ strategic objectives
- Gregg Roman, Alex Selsky, and Jonathan Spyer of the MEF dissect implications for American policy
Shattering the Palestinians’ Hope of Defeating Israel tackles the strategic assumptions, political calculations, and diplomatic failures that have helped sustain one of the world’s most intractable conflicts. Rather than offering another incremental proposal for a ceasefire or a recycled blueprint for Palestinian statehood, the report confronts the conflict’s central question head-on: What if peace remains elusive because Israel’s adversaries still believe they can win?
The report’s argument strikes at the heart of decades of Western policy. From the Oslo Accords to post-October 7 diplomacy, successive initiatives have sought political compromise while leaving a fundamental strategic problem unresolved: the expectation that terrorism, international pressure, and prolonged attrition can ultimately force Israel to capitulate.
The October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre exposed the catastrophic consequences of underestimating that determination. But have policymakers absorbed the lessons—or are they preparing to repeat the same mistakes under a new diplomatic framework?
The MEF report advances the concept of “cognitive defeat”: fundamentally changing the calculations of Israel’s adversaries by dismantling the belief that the Jewish state can be destroyed or forced to surrender. Its analysis raises uncomfortable questions about Palestinian leadership, the Palestinian Authority, international recognition of statehood, postwar governance, and whether conventional peace initiatives have inadvertently reinforced the very expectations they needed to overcome.
Roman, Selsky, and Spyer can unpack the report’s broader implications for Israel’s security, American foreign policy, and the future of the Middle East. They can examine why familiar diplomatic formulas may be inadequate, what must change to prevent another October 7, and whether Western governments are prepared to confront the realities that decades of negotiations have failed to resolve.
This is more than another argument over borders, settlements, or a two-state solution. It is a comprehensive challenge to the strategic assumptions underpinning the international approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Is the world pursuing a peace that cannot last because it refuses to confront why the war continues? This report puts that question squarely on the table—and these three experts can explain why its conclusions demand serious attention.
Relevant Article(s):
Shattering the Palestinians’ Hope of Defeating Israel – Middle East Forum
OPTIONAL Q&A:
- What explosive findings in this comprehensive MEF report challenge decades of conventional Middle East diplomacy?
- Have Western leaders inadvertently reinforced the belief that terrorism and international pressure can defeat Israel?
- Why have decades of negotiations failed to extinguish Palestinian aspirations to eliminate the Jewish state?
- What does “cognitive defeat” mean, and how could it fundamentally change the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
- Did the October 7 massacre expose the catastrophic consequences of misunderstanding Israel’s adversaries?
- Why might another push for Palestinian statehood fail to address the strategic realities fueling this conflict?
- What specific policy changes should Washington consider in light of the MEF report’s findings?
- Could shattering the belief that Israel can be defeated prove more decisive than another round of peace negotiations?
ABOUT GREGG ROMAN…
Gregg Roman is the executive director of the Middle East Forum (MEF). In 2014, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency named him one of the “ten most inspiring global Jewish leaders,” and he previously served as the political advisor to Israel’s deputy foreign minister and worked for the Israeli Ministry of Defense.
A frequent speaker on Middle East affairs, Mr. Roman has testified before Congress and the Knesset and appears on international news channels such as Fox News, i24NEWS, Al Jazeera, BBC World News, and Israel’s Channels 12 and 13. He studied national security and political communications at American University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya and has contributed to The Hill, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, the Miami Herald, and the Jerusalem Post.
ABOUT ALEX SELSKY…
Alex Selsky serves as Director of Israel and East Mediterranean Affairs and serves on the board of directors of Middle East Forum-Israel. Mr. Selsky currently serves as a reserve major in the IDF Homefront Command emergency information unit. He is also a lecturer at the School of Government, Communication and Diplomacy at Jerusalem Multidisciplinary College.
Previously, Mr. Selsky served as an advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, spokesperson for the Israeli National Economic Council, member of the board of governors of the Jewish Agency for Israel, member of the executive board of the World Zionist Organization, and CEO of the International Israel Beytenu Movement. He holds a B.A. in Business and an Executive Master of Public Policy from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
ABOUT JONATHAN SPYER…
Jonathan Spyer oversees the Forum’s content and is editor of the Middle East Quarterly. Mr. Spyer, a journalist, reports for Janes Intelligence Review, writes a column for the Jerusalem Post, and is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal and The Australian. He frequently reports from Syria and Iraq. He has a B.A. from the London School of Economics, an M.A. from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics. He is the author of two books: The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (2010) and Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars (2017).
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